As the dust settles following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, CEOs across industries are recalibrating their outlooks for 2025. While the return of Donald Trump to the White House has sparked diverse reactions, leaders across sectors find a unifying theme: clarity—albeit mixed with challenges—is better than uncertainty. In this article, we explore how different industries are shaping their forecasts, integrating insights from key reports and expert opinions.
Economic Sentiment: Optimism Restored by Post-Election Clarity
The ending of a contentious election cycle has brought a sigh of relief to corporate leaders. Chief Executive’s November CEO Confidence Index reports a dramatic surge in optimism, with 67% of surveyed CEOs expecting better business conditions in 2025, up from 43% in October. Many credit this sentiment to the removal of political uncertainty.
People’s sense of ‘now things are settled’ will allow more business-as-usual actions
Simin Cai, CEO of Go! Foton
While concerns remain about potential tariffs and regulatory changes, many leaders are preparing for growth, buoyed by the potential for pro-business policies (Chief Executive Research, 2024).
Energy Sector: A Steady Road for Natural Gas
In the energy sector, EOG Resources CEO Ezra Yacob forecasts steady demand for natural gas through 2025, despite fewer active drilling rigs and limited production growth. Yacob emphasized the industry’s focus on improved efficiencies and long-term planning in the face of geopolitical uncertainties. While the Trump administration’s policies may favor deregulation, energy leaders remain cautious about the implications of evolving trade dynamics (Natural Gas Intelligence, 2024).
Aviation Industry: Regulatory Relief and Infrastructure Needs
The aviation sector is optimistic about the potential regulatory reset under the incoming administration. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian described the Trump administration’s approach to regulation as a potential “breath of fresh air.” He noted that modernizing air traffic control and addressing workforce visa shortages are priorities for the industry’s sustained growth. Meanwhile, Sun Country Airlines CEO Jude Bricker highlighted the need for stability and resources at the Department of Transportation to address lingering challenges in infrastructure and labor (NBC Chicago, 2024).
Small Business: Cautious Optimism and Strategic Investments
Small businesses are showing cautious optimism for 2025, as revealed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Small Business Index. Capital investment plans are on the rise, with 54% of small business owners planning outlays in the next six months, up three points from September. However, inflation and labor quality remain top concerns, tempering the expansionary outlook (U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 2024).
Main Street employers are cautiously hopeful, preparing for better sales conditions despite inflationary pressures
Thomas M. Sullivan, Vice President of Small Business Policy at the Chamber
Global Trade: Tariffs and Productivity in the Spotlight
The global economy is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs, with U.S. GDP outpacing expectations at 2.5%. However, trade tensions are expected to intensify as the Trump administration implements tariffs on China and other nations.
While U.S. productivity gains remain a bright spot, broad tariffs could drag GDP by up to 0.2 percentage points
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius
The ripple effects are likely to impact global economies disproportionately, particularly in trade-reliant regions like the eurozone(Goldman Sachs, 2024).
Geopolitical Uncertainty: A Reshaped Global Landscape
The World Ahead 2025 report from The Economist highlights the geopolitical uncertainty arising from Trump’s return to office. Policies such as “America First” and a transactional approach to foreign relations are expected to disrupt alliances and exacerbate trade tensions.
Donald Trump’s sweeping victory will shape not just U.S. policy, but global economics and geopolitics
Tom Standage, editor of The World Ahead
Industries tied to international trade and clean technology may feel the most immediate effects of these shifts (The Economist, 2024).
Business Travel: Recovery with Caution
The business travel industry projects a mixed outlook for 2025. STR and Tourism Economics have slightly downgraded their forecasts, citing inflation and lingering uncertainty about Trump’s policies. U.S. hotel occupancy is expected to reach 63%, driven by higher-end properties and a gradual rebound in group travel (Business Travel News, 2024).
The outlook for 2025 remains somewhat in flux, with positive sentiment potentially offset by the higher cost of living
STR President Amanda Hite
Final Thoughts…
As 2025 approaches, CEOs across industries face a dual narrative: optimism fueled by clarity and pro-growth policies. However, this optimism is tempered by the challenges of inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical instability. Whether planning capital investments, adapting to trade shifts, or leveraging regulatory changes, leaders must remain agile to seize opportunities while mitigating risks. For many, the mantra remains: prepare for the unexpected.
References
- Chief Executive Research, November 2024.
- Natural Gas Intelligence, November 2024.
- NBC Chicago, November 2024.
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce, November 2024.
- Goldman Sachs, November 2024.
- The Economist, November 2024.
- Business Travel News, November 2024.
